Analysis: Inside Baseball on Kapstein vs. Roberts
Friday, April 30, 2010
Kapstein is credible the minutes he entered the race yesterday - he has the ability to pass the hat in the clubhouse and raise whatever he needs. Lots of Red Sox nation folks will be interested right out of the block in having one of their own running for office. But, some have got to wonder why a 66-year-old is running for Lt. Governor. Is this a stepping stone to something? Why not run for Congress? Or, if you want to stay closer to Fenway than try the "big boy chair" in the Governor's office?
The arrival for Kapstein is a disaster for Roberts who looked like she had a free ride to the finals and maybe even re-election in November. She has got to be kicking herself for not taking a swing at Congress or the Governor's Office. With both those Democratic primaries having two viable male candidates looking like they are going to knock each other around all summer, her entry would have given her a clean path to a tremendous block of women-base voters.
Think about either scenario:
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTCongressional District 1: With Providence Mayor David Cicilline and former Democratic State Chairman Bill Lynch in the game, Roberts could have painted them both as insiders and run right up the middle to glory . Her healthcare leadership would have juxtaposed to the realities of being the Mayor of Providence and equally to being a super partisan like Lynch has had to be as state party chair (part of the job description). That EMILY's list money would look mighty good right now. According to EMILY's List's mission, "EMILY’s List is dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women to office," specifically supporting women running for senate, congress, and governor. (Oops, no Lt. Governor listed.)
Governor: Roberts has a tailor made double play democratic primary with Patrick Lynch and Frank Caprio. Both are young, experienced, and are already bloodying each other. This would have allowed Roberts to side-step both. A Roberts, Chafee, Block and GOP primary winner would have been interesting for her. If she could hold a Democratic-base and added a strong women's block the race might have been hers.
In an election cycle defined by change, running for re-election versus a wealthy, baseball guy, educated at Harvard, with a military background may not be the best scenario.
For Roberts who is smart, wildly likable and has her own resources the race for Lt. Governor is not lost, but boy that is a lot of fighting for a job that many believe is a good place to cut to help balance the budget.
Now, for Kapstein the same questions need to be raised, WHY?
With a resume that attracts most every block of democratic, demographic subsets why do you want to be Lt. Governor of Rhode Island? Was town moderator in Tiverton filled?
You grew up in Providence, went to Harvard, then reinvented baseball by being the first super agent for free agents, right? Since then you ran a baseball team (insert TV commercial here about business experience) and you helped to build the Red Sox into one of the most valuable businesses in sports on the globe and your biggest dream at 66 years-of-age is to be the Lt. Governor?
Like Roberts, both a congressional run and a shot at the governor's office seem more attractive. Running for Lt. Governor seems a little minor league.
At the end of the day, the Robert-Kapstein race has the potential to be another highly competitive example of RI democracy. It is hard to say that in 2010, Rhode Islanders don't have a lot of good choices in top races.
Batter up!
