The new federal climate assessment report issued on Friday paints a dire picture for the future of the Rhode Island environment -- and economy -- due to the impacts of global warming.
On the macro level, the study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlines devastating effects of climate change on the United States. The economy could lose hundreds of billions of dollars -- more than 10% of its GDP -- by the end of the century.
The report issued by the administration of President Donald Trump states that the Northeast will be among the hardest hit areas in the country, “Ocean and coastal ecosystems are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions. These ecosystems support fishing and aquaculture, tourism and recreation, and coastal communities.”
“Observed and projected increases in temperature, acidification, storm frequency and intensity, and sea levels are of particular concern for coastal and ocean ecosystems, as well as local communities and their interconnected social and economic systems,” states the report.
SEE SLIDES BELOW -- 7 Ways RI and Northeast Will Be Impacted By Global Warming
The study finds that high temperatures will continue to get hotter and impact more days each summer and correspondingly, the number of severe winter days will increase.
“The new study is a comprehensive summary of the effects that are and will result from global climate change. In Rhode Island and in the northeast, we are seeing rising sea level, coastal erosion, storm events and changes in fisheries due to climate change, and these impacts will only increase with time,” Dean Bruce Corliss of the University of Rhode Island’s Graduate School of Oceanography told GoLocal.
“The report discusses the broad impact that climate change will have on the nation and the need to address climate change issues. Climate change is an issue that will affect virtually all citizens in the coming years and it needs attention at the federal, state and local level,” said Corliss.
“By the middle of the century, the freeze-free period across much of the Northeast is expected to lengthen by as much as two weeks under the lower scenario and by two to three weeks under the higher scenario. By the end of the century, the freeze-free period is expected to increase by at least three weeks over most of the region,” states the report.
The new federal report says all will not be treated equally. The poor, young and old will be hit the hardest by the effects of climate change. “Although climate change affects all residents of the Northeast region, risks are not experienced equally. The impact of climate change on an individual depends on the degree of exposure, the individual sensitivity to that exposure, and the individual or community-level capacity to recover.”
“Thus, health impacts of climate change will vary across people and communities of the Northeast region depending on social, socioeconomic, demographic, and societal factors; community adaptation efforts; and underlying individual vulnerability. Particularly vulnerable groups include older or socially isolated adults, children, low-income communities, and communities of color,” the report states.
A previous study by Climate Central found that Rhode Island has 25,000 people at risk of coastal flooding. By 2050, an additional 8,000 people are projected to be at risk due to sea level rise.
Teresa Crean with RI Sea Grant and the University of Rhode Island’s Coastal Resources Center, while appearing on GoLocal LIVE said the impact of rising sea level in Rhode Island is already being seen in communities like Newport, Wickford, Westerly and Oakland Beach.
URI Coastal Resources Center and Rhode Island Sea Grant have developed STORMTOOLS, where anyone can plug in an address and see your risk of coastal flooding now or in the future.
According to the UCS data, the risk is imminent and fast-growing, with flooding coming not just from storms and heavy rain but instead just from normal high tide.
Hundreds of US coastal communities will soon face chronic, disruptive flooding that directly affects people's homes, lives, and properties.
The study's "high level" estimate shows that by 2030, more than 400 Rhode Island properties worth collectively just under $300 million will be at risk of flooding or complete destruction.
As time goes on, projections become increasingly grim. Just 30 years later in 2060, that number more than triples to just around 2,000 RI properties, valued at over $1 billion.
By the end of the century, the high estimate shows over 6,600 properties valued at more than $3.6 billion will be at risk, affecting just under 13,000 people in the state.
Related Slideshow: 7 Ways RI and Northeast Will Be Impacted By Global Warming According to New Fed’l Report
In Rhode Island, maximum daily temperatures in the summer have trended upwards over the last 60 years, such that residents experienced about three more weeks of health-threatening hot weather over 2015–2016 than in the 1950s.
A recent study looking at visits to hospital emergency rooms (ERs) found that the incidence rate of heat-related ER visits rose sharply as maximum daily temperatures climbed above 80°F.
The study estimates that with continued climate change, Rhode Islanders could experience an additional 400 (6.8% more) heat-related ER visits each year by 2050 and up to an additional 1,500 (24.4% more) such visits each year by 2095 under the higher scenario.
Increases in annual average temperatures across the Northeast range from less than 1°F (0.6°C) in West Virginia to about 3°F (1.7°C) or more in New England since 1901. Although the relative risk of death on very hot days is lower today than it was a few decades ago, heat-related illness and death remain significant public health problems in the Northeast.
For example, a study in New York City estimated that in 2013 there were 133 excess deaths due to extreme heat. These projected increases in temperature are expected to lead to substantially more premature deaths, hospital admissions, and emergency department visits across the Northeast.
The northeast can expect approximately 650 additional premature deaths per year from extreme heat by the year 2050 under either a lower or higher scenario and from 960 to 2,300 more premature deaths per year by 2090, according to the reports.
The recent dominant trend in precipitation throughout the Northeast has been towards increases in rainfall intensity, with recent increases in intensity exceeding those in other regions in the contiguous United States.
Further increases in rainfall intensity are expected, with increases in precipitation expected during the winter and spring with little change in the summer. Monthly precipitation in the Northeast is projected to be about 1 inch greater for December through April by end of the century (2070–2100) under the higher scenario.
The Northeast winter recreation industry is an important economic resource for rural areas, supporting approximately 44,500 jobs and generating between $2.6–$2.7 billion in revenue annually.
Like other outdoor tourism industries, it is strongly influenced by weather and climate, making it particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even under the lower scenario, the average length of the winter recreation season and the number of recreational visits are projected to decrease by mid-century.
Under the same scenario, lost time for snowmaking is expected to delay the start of the ski season across southern areas, potentially impacting revenues during the winter holiday season. Activities that rely on natural snow and ice cover are projected to remain economically viable in only far northern parts of the region by end of the century under the higher scenario.
Rising ocean temperatures have also affected the productivity of marine populations. Species at the southern extent of their range, such as northern shrimp, surf clams, and Atlantic cod, are declining as waters warm while other species, such as black sea bass, are experiencing increased productivity. Some species, such as American lobster and surf clam, have declined in southern regions where temperatures have exceeded their biological tolerances but have increased in northern areas as warming waters have enhanced their productivity.
The productivity of some harvested and cultured species may also be indirectly influenced by changing levels of marine pathogens and diseases. For example, increasing prevalence of shell disease in lobsters and several pathogens in oysters have been associated with rising water temperatures; other pathogens that infect shellfish pose risks to human health.
Coastal flood risks from storm-driven precipitation and surges are major drivers of coastal change and are also amplified by sea level increases.
Storms have unique climatological features in the Northeast—Nor’easters (named for the low-pressure systems typically impacting New England and the Mid-Atlantic with strong northeasterly winds blowing from the ocean over coastal areas) typically occur between September and April, and when coupled with the Atlantic hurricane season between June and September, the region is susceptible to major storms nearly year-round. Storm flood heights driven by hurricanes in New York City increased by more than 3.9 feet (1.2 m) over the last thousand years.
When coupled with storm surges, sea level rise can pose severe risks of flooding, with consequent physical and mental health impacts on coastal populations.
Northeastern cities, with their abundance of concrete and asphalt and relative lack of vegetation, tend to have higher temperatures than surrounding regions due to the urban heat island effect. During extreme heat events, nighttime temperatures in the region’s big cities are generally several degrees higher than surrounding regions, leading to higher risk of heat-related death.
Urban areas are at risk for large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure due to both extreme precipitation events and recurrent flooding, potentially requiring significant emergency response efforts and consideration of a long-term commitment to rebuilding and adaptation, and/or support for relocation where needed. Much of the infrastructure in the Northeast, including drainage and sewer systems, flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and power supply, is nearing the end of its planned life expectancy. Climate-related disruptions will only exacerbate existing issues with aging infrastructure. Sea level rise has amplified storm impacts in the Northeast (Key Message 2), contributing to higher surges that extend farther inland, as demonstrated in New York City in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
Service and resource supply infrastructure in the Northeast is at increasing risk of disruption, resulting in lower quality of life, economic declines, and increased social inequality.17 Loss of public services affects the capacity of communities to function as administrative and economic centers and triggers disruptions of interconnected supply chains (Ch. 16: International, Key Message 1).
