Election Battle On: Who Will Win 2012 The Congressional Races?
Saturday, October 01, 2011
There are still months to go before we enter the political primary season, but as we’ve already seen, the upcoming races are slowly coming into focus and promise to be some of the most memorable in recent memory. As politics continue to dominate the local news, both on the State and Federal fronts, we take a look at how the races are shaping up and where they stand today.
A Negative Rating, But in the Lead
Though GoLocalProv’s recent exclusive poll indicated that David Cicilline maintains a lead in his bid for re-election, the first-term Democratic Congressman’s campaign is not without its shortfalls. Despite a small lead, Cicilline stakes claim to the highest unfavorable number of any elected official in Rhode Island at 51%. By comparison, his Republican candidate counterparts, Brendan Doherty and John Loughlin, each have unfavorable less than 12%.
“The Republican party finds itself in the unusual position of having two potential opponents,” said pollster Victor Profughi. “The opposition may tear itself apart, certainly helping Cicilline’s efforts.”
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTStill, Profughi was not quite optimistic about Cicilline’s chances. “Cicilline won last time by a very small margin and started his first term with a lot of negatives. Recent polls suggest that he is still vulnerable, and could even have some difficulties in a Democratic primary,” Profughi added.
In addition to Doherty and Loughlin, Cicilline finds himself up against Anthony Gemma, another Democratic candidate. Gemma boasts an unfavorable number of only 8%, though, like Doherty and Loughlin, much of that can be attributed to voter’s unfamiliarity with each challenger. As it stands today, Cicilline leads Doherty 43% to 39% and Loughlin 45% to 37%. Less than 20% of voters are undecided in each potential race.
Cicilline has faced harsh criticism from both sides of the aisle since taking office in January. GoLocalProv’s survey revealed that voter dissatisfaction with Ciciiline is due in large part to his performance as Mayor of Providence. There is little question that the Congressman has work to do among the constituents of his district to shore up support and address a disconnect that has developed as a result of voter’s overall displeasure with Congress.
Sheldon’s Strength
When compared with Cicilline, another Rhode Island Congressman seeking re-election has a brighter outlook for next November’s elections. According to Profughi, Sheldon Whitehouse is “running hard” and putting together a solid campaign to hold onto his role as Senator in 2012.
“Senator Whitehouse has many things going for him,” Profughi said.”First, he has done a good job putting together a local senatorial office which is effectively responding to contacts. Second, he is doing a good job with fundraising, and third, he is not taking this race for granted.”
Despite what look like good odds, Whitehouse is up against a charismatic Republican opponent, Barry Hinckley. Though Profughi tasked Hinckley with “gaining name recognition and building the resources that will enable him to compete successfully,” the Hinckley campaign remains optimistic.
“This has been a remarkably successful quarter for Team Hinckley,” said Nick Cicchitelli, Hinckley’s Campaign Manager. “Our campaign has grown by leaps and bounds; we’ve locked down key endorsements and dramatically expanded our fundraising base.”
While the incumbent Senator leads Hinckley by 31 points, he has less than 50 percent support of voters when an opponent is not named. On a more positive note, Whitehouse remains one of Rhode Island’s most popular elected officials with more than half of registered voters favorably viewing the Senator. The first-term Senator’s ability to fundraise is viewed by many as a key factor in the race. According to reports, Whitehouse already has more than $2 million in cash on hand after raising $800,000 in the second quarter.
The Gloves are Off
The battle between Republican Congressional candidates John Loughlin and Brendan Doherty has approached new levels. In response to Doherty’s recent comments claiming he had broad support among Republicans in the 1st Congressional District, Loughlin campaign spokesman Michael Napolitano blasted the former Rhode Island State Police Superintendant.
"I find it interesting that Brendan Doherty made claims in an interview that he has extensive grassroots support in the Republican party,” stated Napolitano. “And, in the same interview, he admitted that he hasn’t even met House Minority Leader Brian Newberry, one of the highest Republican elected officials in the state. Even if you discount his not knowing Newberry, how can Doherty make a claim of broad grass roots support when only one of the 16 Republican City/Town chairs in the district supports Doherty?"
In response, House Minority Leader Brian Newberry called on Doherty to remove himself from the race. But Doherty said he has no intention of dropping out.
Right now, Doherty leads Loughlin by a small margin, 27% to 22%, in how they are favorably viewed by voters.
Hinckley Pushing Anti-Incumbent Message
As a Republican candidate running for Senate against incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, Barry Hinckley is seen by many to be facing an uphill battle. However, Hinckley continues to build his candidacy with a focus on the importance of addressing the national debt. The 45 year-old pro-choice, pro-civil union, and self-described “liberty Republican” is pushing hard an anti-incumbent message.
According to Hinckley, Senator Whitehouse has done nothing to cultivate job growth in his first term in office.
“Sheldon Whitehouse has stood with President Obama for three years,” Hinckley said. “And where has that gotten us? They promised us jobs and a growing economy. Instead we have record unemployment, and a growing national debt.”
One of the messages being hammered home by Hinckley’s camp is that since Whitehouse took office, the country’s debt has increased exponentially and that the state’s unemployment rate skyrocket.
“Our national debt is set to double over the course of Sheldon Whitehouse’s first term, and our unemployment rate in Rhode Island has more than doubled since he took office,” he said.
Like many Americans, Barry Hinckley is calling for change. He feels strongly that in order to move forward, voters need to remove power from the incumbents who have been responsible for the country’s dire economic and employment outlook. While he continues to pick up Republican endorsements in the Ocean State, money remains an issue. The thought is that $2.5 million will make him a serious contender and with his opponent willing to spend whatever it takes to keep his seat, Hinckley will need every penny.
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