EXCLUSIVE: PawSox Consultant’s Findings in Other Cities Often Very Rosy
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
A GoLocalProv review of reports written by consultants hired by the PawSox new ownership group finds similarities in the methodology and the findings of many of the reports that the consultants have delivered across the country.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe firm, Brailsford & Dunlavey, has a portfolio of hundreds of teams and venues across the country in a variety of sports. In the past decade, Brailsford & Dunlavey has been hired by pro teams and governmental entities looking at the viability of minor league baseball teams. GoLocalProv obtained ten different reports developed by the firm.
Six of the reports reviewed by GoLocalProv were specifically for minor league baseball projects and each was secured from municipalities or counties across the United States through public record requests.
The new owners of the Triple A affiliate of the Boston Red Sox are a who’s who of captains of industry from Boston, Providence -- and a number who have left Rhode Island and moved to Florida such as Tom Ryan, former CEO of CVS and Terry Murray, the former CEO of Fleet Bank. Collectively the owners have personal wealth in the billions cumulatively.
As GoLocalTV reported last week, the new ownership group is looking for not only for a land subsidy, but also land from the state for a hotel project.
Pawtucket Red Sox attendance has fallen steeply over the past decade according to Minor League Baseball stats. For the 2005 season, the Pawtucket Red Sox drew 688,421 in 72 games for a per game average of 9,561. Ten seasons later, the Paw Sox drew just 515,665 in 70 games for a per game average of 7,367 - a 23% decline.
The firm hired by the new PawSox owners self describe themselves as working to furhther its clients' interests.
“Our Research and Methods team continually acquires and disseminates the most current and usable data on the facility types where we specialize, which helps our clients achieve their project goals," writes Brailsford and Dunlavey on its webstie.
Household Size Analysis - Finding are Similar in Different Cities
In reviewing two different reports issued to two different clients, the findings were similar in key areas of the reports prepared by the consutling firm hired by the PawSox new ownership group.
For both the Fredericksburg Economic Development Authority and Virginia Beach project, language about the importance of “Household Size” as a key indicator for the success of minor league teams was remarkably similar despite significant differences between the two communities.
Fredericksburg:
Household Size
Along with ballpark age, market population is one of the most predictive characteristics of ballpark attendance. Fredericksburg has nearly 400,000 people in 131,000 households within the 30-minute drive time area. This market area is expected to grow at nearly two percent (2%) annually over the next five years. Fredericksburg’s average residents per household is 2.95, which is nearly 20% larger than its market peers. Given minor league baseball’s focus on affordable family entertainment, a higher resident per household figure bodes well for attendance levels.
Virginia Beach:
Household Size
Along with ballpark age, market population is one of the most predictive characteristics of ballpark attendance. Virginia Beach has an aggregate population of 1,006,816 in 373,493 households within the 30-minute drive time area. Within the comparable set, Virginia Beach ranks third in population and number of households. Virginia Beach’s average residents per household is 2.70, which exceeds the comparable average of 2.53. Given the Atlantic League’s focus on affordable family entertainment, a higher resident per household figure bodes well for attendance levels.
Regardless of Size of Markets, Consultant Finds Similar Attendance
In the case of the Brailsford & Dunlavey report delivered to the Fredericksburg Economic Development Authority, the report found that the minor league team could support average attendance of 4,000 per game in a market of just 386,766 within a 30 minute drive:
Market Capture Analysis by Population
Using demographic and attendance data from each comparable market, B&D completed a market capture analysis to project attendance at a newly-constructed stadium. Each team’s average annual attendance from 2008 to 2012 was translated into a percentage of the 30-minute drive time population for each market. When the average capture rate of 71% is applied to the Fredericksburg market, the potential annual paid attendance is just over 4,000 per game for 68 games. When the Great Lakes’ capture ratio of 86.5% is applied, a Fredericksburg ballpark could draw up to 5,000 attendees per game.
Similarly, Brailsford & Dunlavey found that a market area three times the size of Fredericksburg would deliver similar attendance. The report delivered for Virginia Beach, Virginia which has a total population of 1,006,816 also supports a team with an estimated attendance of 4,600.
Market Capture Analysis by Total Population
B&D completed a series of capture analyses to provide a context in which to estimate likely attendance levels for a new Atlantic League ballpark in Virginia Beach. Firstly, using demographic and attendance data from each comparable market, B&D conducted a capture analysis based on the comparable set. Each team’s average annual attendance from 2009 to 2013 was translated
into a percentage of the 30-minute drive time population for each market. When the average capture rate of 0.5% is applied to the Virginia Beach market, the potential annual paid attendance is just over 4,600 per game prior to considering the operation of the Norfolk Tides.
If Brailsford & Dunlavey utilizes the same methodology for the proposed Providence ballpark, then the project may be doomed. Rhode Island's average residents per household is only 2.46 which is significantly lower than the U.S. average of 2.63 and dramatically lower than both Virginia Beach and Fredericksburg.
Hotel Projects in the Tens of Thousands Per Year
According to Brailsford & Dunlavey, the economic benefits of a minor league baseball team seems remarkable. The consultants found that for Hartford, Connecticut proposed project, more than 23,000 hotel nights would be realized annually - an average of nearly 330 rooms per game. Even more optimistic was the firms projections for Columbia, South Carolina. Brailsford & Dunlavey projected 35,000 or 500 rooms per night average for each Class A minor league game in Columbia. It should be noted that both venues were expected to have some limited concerts and other events.
The only project GoLocal could find that Brailsford & Dunlavey said was not viable was the development of a new baseball stadium in Portland, Maine to house the Sea Dogs. In 1999, a Portland Press Herald article noted that one of the principals raised concerns about a new ballpark in Portland. "We believe that our market analysis raises a few 'red flags' about the limits of the potential
upsides of the market,’ wrote Christopher S. Dunlavey."
Ultimately a new stadium was built in Portland - Hadlock Field was built with a capacity of 6,000 and has been subsequently expanded three times to a present capacity of 7,368.
According to Minor League Baseball statistics, the Sea Dogs have averaged between 5,000 and 6.400 in 2007. In 2014, the Sea Dogs’ attendance was 5,530.
According to the Brailsford & Dunlavey, “More than 85% of the development projects B&D plans get approved, funded, and built. We attribute this track record to the care our teams take on the front end of project planning to align the program with the client’s mission and strategy.”
Repeated efforts by phone, email and LinkedIn to reach B.J. Rudell, Director of Marketing at Brailsford & Dunlavey went unanswered.
Related Slideshow: The Ten Biggest Questions Facing the PawSox Coming to Providence
If the new ownership of the Pawtucket Red Sox want to build a new stadium in Providence, a number of questions need to be answered. The potential for a major contruction project in the state's capitial city touches upon a number of issues, from money, to politics, to jobs, and development.
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